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Analysis Report

Updated: 2026-03-16 15:43:05 MYT

Source File: combined-summary-20260316-154304.md

Screening Source: screen-report-20260316-154250.md Extracted Symbols: AAOI, AXTI

Topline Summary

Symbol Spot Support Resistance Flip Regime P>Res P<Sup 68% Range 90% Range
AAOI 96.81 23.00 115.29 NA TREND 17.6% 0.0% 78.33 - 115.29 66.41 - 127.21
AXTI 48.86 38.74 58.98 24.43 TRANSITION 15.3% 18.3% 38.74 - 58.98 32.21 - 65.51

AAOI

Spot: 96.81
Report Time: 2026-03-16 03:42 PM MYT
Regime: TREND
Dealer Gamma: SHORT

AAOI Daily Candles EMA

AAOI Option Chain CALL vs PUT

Term Structure

Expiry DTE Forward ATM IV ATM Straddle
2026-03-20 5 96.72 149.91% 16.13
2026-03-27 12 95.92 125.97% 21.65

Weekly Range

Confidence Low High Width
68% 78.33 115.29 36.97
80% 73.12 120.50 47.38
90% 66.41 127.21 60.81
95% 60.58 133.04 72.46

Structure & Probabilities

Support Resistance Gamma Flip Max Pain P>Res P<Sup
23.00 115.29 NA 1.00 17.6% 0.0%

Flow & Skew

Call Vol Put Vol Vol P/C Call OI Put OI OI P/C Skew Skew Bias
11,537 4,641 0.40 174 965 5.55 790.23 vol pts PUT_SKEW

Tail Risk

Q10 Q50 Q90 Down Tail Up Tail Down/Up
11.27 12.35 107.65 85.54 10.84 7.89

Daily Technicals

EMA20 EMA50 VWAP20 BB Lower BB Mid BB Upper BB Width Vol Ratio Path
86.18 63.92 91.44 21.94 79.61 137.28 144.88% 1.41 UP trend (expanding)

Day Plan

  • 23.00-115.29 range: fade extremes
  • > 115.29: chase only if hold + vol
  • < 23.00: risk expand; reduce size
  • Regime: TREND
  • Tech: UP trend (expanding)

Swing Plan

  • Accumulate: 23.00-23.00
  • Trim: 115.29-115.29
  • Add: close > 115.29
  • Cut: close < 23.00
  • Best for: trend regime
Raw Text Summary 
📌 AAOI @ 96.81 (2026-03-16 03:42 PM MYT)

• Current price is **96.81**. Key support is around **23.00**, and resistance is around **115.29**.
• For the next week, the model’s **68% expected range** is roughly **78.33 to 115.29**.
• A wider **90% range** is about **66.41 to 127.21**.
• Dealer positioning looks **SHORT gamma**, so the market behavior is classified as **TREND**.
• Approximate breakout odds: **above resistance 17.6%**, **below support 0.0%** by the target horizon.
• Options skew is tilted toward **puts**, which suggests traders are paying more for downside protection.
• Near-term implied volatility is higher than the next expiry (**IV1 149.91% vs IV2 125.97%**), which suggests **near-term event stress / backwardation**.
• On the daily chart, the stock currently looks like **UP trend (expanding)**.
• The implied distribution shows **heavier downside tail risk** than upside tail potential.

AXTI

Spot: 48.86
Report Time: 2026-03-16 03:43 PM MYT
Regime: TRANSITION
Dealer Gamma: NEUTRAL

AXTI Daily Candles EMA

AXTI Option Chain CALL vs PUT

Term Structure

Expiry DTE Forward ATM IV ATM Straddle
2026-03-20 5 49.07 162.42% 8.82
2026-04-17 33 48.95 124.58% 18.16

Weekly Range

Confidence Low High Width
68% 38.74 58.98 20.24
80% 35.89 61.83 25.94
90% 32.21 65.51 33.29
95% 29.03 68.69 39.67

Structure & Probabilities

Support Resistance Gamma Flip Max Pain P>Res P<Sup
38.74 58.98 24.43 2.50 15.3% 18.3%

Flow & Skew

Call Vol Put Vol Vol P/C Call OI Put OI OI P/C Skew Skew Bias
6,369 4,945 0.78 0 0 NA 43.75 vol pts PUT_SKEW

Tail Risk

Q10 Q50 Q90 Down Tail Up Tail Down/Up
5.66 8.28 57.63 43.20 8.77 4.93

Daily Technicals

EMA20 EMA50 VWAP20 BB Lower BB Mid BB Upper BB Width Vol Ratio Path
37.66 29.14 38.30 19.33 36.41 53.49 93.82% 1.17 UP trend (expanding)

Day Plan

  • 38.74-58.98 range: fade extremes
  • > 58.98: chase only if hold + vol
  • < 38.74: risk expand; reduce size
  • Regime: TRANSITION
  • Tech: UP trend (expanding)

Swing Plan

  • Accumulate: 38.74-38.74
  • Trim: 58.98-58.98
  • Add: close > 58.98
  • Cut: close < 38.74
  • Best for: transition regime
Raw Text Summary 
📌 AXTI @ 48.86 (2026-03-16 03:43 PM MYT)

• Current price is **48.86**. Key support is around **38.74**, and resistance is around **58.98**.
• For the next week, the model’s **68% expected range** is roughly **38.74 to 58.98**.
• A wider **90% range** is about **32.21 to 65.51**.
• Dealer positioning looks **NEUTRAL gamma**, so the market behavior is classified as **TRANSITION**.
• The estimated **gamma flip** is near **24.43**. Crossing and holding beyond this area can change the trading behavior.
• Approximate breakout odds: **above resistance 15.3%**, **below support 18.3%** by the target horizon.
• Options skew is tilted toward **puts**, which suggests traders are paying more for downside protection.
• Near-term implied volatility is higher than the next expiry (**IV1 162.42% vs IV2 124.58%**), which suggests **near-term event stress / backwardation**.
• On the daily chart, the stock currently looks like **UP trend (expanding)**.
• The implied distribution shows **heavier downside tail risk** than upside tail potential.
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