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Analysis Report

Updated: 2026-03-16 21:28:11 MYT

Source File: combined-summary-20260316-212656.md

Screening Source: screen-report-20260316-154250.md Extracted Symbols: AAOI, AXTI

Topline Summary

Symbol Spot Support Resistance Flip Regime P>Res P<Sup 68% Range 90% Range
AAOI 96.81 90.00 100.00 96.69 PIN 35.5% 35.1% 78.13 - 115.49 66.09 - 127.53
AXTI 48.86 45.00 50.00 48.52 PIN 37.4% 34.6% 38.63 - 59.09 32.04 - 65.68

AAOI

Spot: 96.81
Report Time: 2026-03-16 09:26 PM MYT
Regime: PIN
Dealer Gamma: LONG

AAOI Daily Candles EMA

AAOI Option Chain CALL vs PUT

Term Structure

Expiry DTE Forward ATM IV ATM Straddle
2026-03-20 5 96.72 154.04% 16.13
2026-03-27 12 95.92 127.30% 21.65

Weekly Range

Confidence Low High Width
68% 78.13 115.49 37.35
80% 72.88 120.74 47.87
90% 66.09 127.53 61.44
95% 60.21 133.41 73.21

Structure & Probabilities

Support Resistance Gamma Flip Max Pain P>Res P<Sup
90.00 100.00 96.69 50.00 35.5% 35.1%

Flow & Skew

Call Vol Put Vol Vol P/C Call OI Put OI OI P/C Skew Skew Bias
11,537 4,641 0.40 36,368 30,854 0.85 790.23 vol pts PUT_SKEW

Tail Risk

Q10 Q50 Q90 Down Tail Up Tail Down/Up
11.27 12.35 107.65 85.54 10.84 7.89

Daily Technicals

EMA20 EMA50 VWAP20 BB Lower BB Mid BB Upper BB Width Vol Ratio Path
86.18 63.92 91.44 21.94 79.61 137.28 144.88% 1.41 UP trend (expanding)

Day Plan

  • 90.00-100.00 range: fade extremes
  • > 100.00: chase only if hold + vol
  • < 90.00: risk expand; reduce size
  • Regime: PIN
  • Tech: UP trend (expanding)

Swing Plan

  • Accumulate: 90.00-90.00
  • Trim: 100.00-100.00
  • Add: close > 100.00
  • Cut: close < 90.00
  • Best for: pin regime
Raw Text Summary 
📌 AAOI @ 96.81 (2026-03-16 09:26 PM MYT)

• Current price is **96.81**. Key support is around **90.00**, and resistance is around **100.00**.
• For the next week, the model’s **68% expected range** is roughly **78.13 to 115.49**.
• A wider **90% range** is about **66.09 to 127.53**.
• Dealer positioning looks **LONG gamma**, so the market behavior is classified as **PIN**.
• The estimated **gamma flip** is near **96.69**. Crossing and holding beyond this area can change the trading behavior.
• Approximate breakout odds: **above resistance 35.5%**, **below support 35.1%** by the target horizon.
• Options skew is tilted toward **puts**, which suggests traders are paying more for downside protection.
• Near-term implied volatility is higher than the next expiry (**IV1 154.04% vs IV2 127.30%**), which suggests **near-term event stress / backwardation**.
• On the daily chart, the stock currently looks like **UP trend (expanding)**.
• The implied distribution shows **heavier downside tail risk** than upside tail potential.

AXTI

Spot: 48.86
Report Time: 2026-03-16 09:26 PM MYT
Regime: PIN
Dealer Gamma: LONG

AXTI Daily Candles EMA

AXTI Option Chain CALL vs PUT

Term Structure

Expiry DTE Forward ATM IV ATM Straddle
2026-03-20 5 49.07 166.90% 8.82
2026-04-17 33 48.95 125.04% 18.16

Weekly Range

Confidence Low High Width
68% 38.63 59.09 20.45
80% 35.76 61.96 26.21
90% 32.04 65.68 33.64
95% 28.82 68.90 40.08

Structure & Probabilities

Support Resistance Gamma Flip Max Pain P>Res P<Sup
45.00 50.00 48.52 40.00 37.4% 34.6%

Flow & Skew

Call Vol Put Vol Vol P/C Call OI Put OI OI P/C Skew Skew Bias
6,369 4,945 0.78 15,822 24,439 1.54 43.75 vol pts PUT_SKEW

Tail Risk

Q10 Q50 Q90 Down Tail Up Tail Down/Up
5.66 8.28 57.63 43.20 8.77 4.93

Daily Technicals

EMA20 EMA50 VWAP20 BB Lower BB Mid BB Upper BB Width Vol Ratio Path
37.66 29.14 38.30 19.33 36.41 53.49 93.82% 1.17 UP trend (expanding)

Day Plan

  • 45.00-50.00 range: fade extremes
  • > 50.00: chase only if hold + vol
  • < 45.00: risk expand; reduce size
  • Regime: PIN
  • Tech: UP trend (expanding)

Swing Plan

  • Accumulate: 45.00-45.00
  • Trim: 50.00-50.00
  • Add: close > 50.00
  • Cut: close < 45.00
  • Best for: pin regime
Raw Text Summary 
📌 AXTI @ 48.86 (2026-03-16 09:26 PM MYT)

• Current price is **48.86**. Key support is around **45.00**, and resistance is around **50.00**.
• For the next week, the model’s **68% expected range** is roughly **38.63 to 59.09**.
• A wider **90% range** is about **32.04 to 65.68**.
• Dealer positioning looks **LONG gamma**, so the market behavior is classified as **PIN**.
• The estimated **gamma flip** is near **48.52**. Crossing and holding beyond this area can change the trading behavior.
• Approximate breakout odds: **above resistance 37.4%**, **below support 34.6%** by the target horizon.
• Options skew is tilted toward **puts**, which suggests traders are paying more for downside protection.
• Near-term implied volatility is higher than the next expiry (**IV1 166.90% vs IV2 125.04%**), which suggests **near-term event stress / backwardation**.
• On the daily chart, the stock currently looks like **UP trend (expanding)**.
• The implied distribution shows **heavier downside tail risk** than upside tail potential.
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